Here’s an UPDATE on impact weather expected to affect north and central Georgia late tonight through Wednesday evening, as of 3:30PM EST Tuesday (November 17).

Changes from previous forecast (yesterday):
1. The heaviest rain associated with a broken “squall line” of showers/thunderstorms is expected to be about 3-6 hours slower than thought yesterday.  This will place the axis of heavy rain entering northwest GA between 12PM (noon) and 3PM Wednesday.  The heaviest rain should exit our eastern/southern-most counties after midnight, Wednesday night.

2. We are also expecting slightly higher total rainfall amounts (see attached graphic), especially across northeast Georgia where 3-4 inches of rain is possible.

Hazards (WATCHES/ADVISORIES/ETC.)

** FLOOD WATCH in effect from 10AM Wednesday through 10AM Thursday

** WIND ADVISORY in effect from 10PM Tonight through 1PM Wednesday

 

Primary Threats/Impacts/Timing:

• Heavy Rain — 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected (area-wide), with locally higher amounts, between midnight tonight and early Thursday morning, with much of this rain occurring between noon (12PM) and 10PM Wednesday.
  • IMPACTS: localized flash flooding / minor flooding of area creeks/streams/rivers
• Strong (non-thunderstorm) winds — widespread gusty winds 15-30 MPH will develop tonight, especially in the higher elevations of North GA, and continue through Wednesday.  Strongest wind gusts (> 35 MPH) are expected across exposed areas and mountain ridgetops of north Georgiabetween 12AM (midnight) and 12PM Wednesday.
  • NOTE: brief higher wind gusts (45-55 MPH) within showers and thunderstorms are possible
  • IMPACTS: downed trees/powerlines due to winds and saturated grounds from heavy rain.
• Severe Storms — the threat for widespread severe thunderstorms continues to remain LOW – but areas along and south of a Columbus to Macon to Warrenton line may see an increased storm threat Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Confidence:

• Heavy rain & minor flooding — High
• Timing of heaviest rain — Medium to High
• Strong (non-thunderstorm) winds — High
• Downed trees due to wind + saturated soils — Medium to High

Image Attachments:

• Total Rainfall FORECAST valid 1AM Tonight to 7AM Thursday
  • NOTE: Much of this rain is expected to occur in just a 4-8 hour window Wednesday afternoon/evening
• Peak Wind Gusts – strongest wind gusts forecast to occur between midnight (tonight) and 3PM Wednesday

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/